Great edition of the Schillaci Stakes, with the small but even field the most open in recent memory. There are statistics that support almost every runner, and every runner will have a chance. It looks to be a race with one or two clear leaders in Dosh and Savatoxl, and a host of strong back markers that will all be prominent late in the race. You would expect that with the rail in the true position that the winners would come from the middle of the field or better, but with some outstanding barnstormers in the race, there is little confidence on that. Looking to a strong leader and a strong backmarker, focusing in on September Run and Savatoxl. Savatoxl has drawn well, has the early speed and has the top turn of foot in the race. If there is no pressure up front, he will go very deep into the race. September Run is surely needing a bigger and more open track than the Valley, and I don’t think we have seen the best of her yet this prep. Of all of the swoopers, I think she is the strongest. The earlier races will tell us a lot about the advantages, and it will be a tough day to find a winner. One last interesting statistic is that this year at this trip at Caulfield, favourites have a 45% strike rate. Don’t ignore the obvious. September Run from Savatoxl.

Good Luck


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Click here to enlarge a speed map for Caulfield Race 5 Speed Map Statfreaks 2021 9th of October 2021


1 Savatoxl Drawn well with a great first up record, and Currie rides well for McEvoy. Lightening turn of foot, and will be right up on the speed. His numbers suggest a strong finish.
2 Roheryn Top rider, top stable, top turn of foot. Odd that he ran badly last start first up, and must be ready for this. Only problem is how far he will get back with other back markers. Will need luck to get through.
3 Isaurian Highly rated his last two preps without winning, and goes very well fresh. Great turn of foot and drawn well to hold a mid field spot. Value.
4 September Run Never given any chance in her two starts this prep, and surely more advantaged at Caulfield at this grade. Will have it all to do from settling last, but statistically this is her trip and can see her flying home to win.
5 Bella Nipotina Just so consistent and could have been 3 on the bounce. Just can’t see her not flying home to threaten the leaders, and the numbers suggest she will make an early go for it. If she can hold a good spot midfield, she will have every chance.
6 Shaquero Another back marker that ran pretty well last start. Just not sure about the draw and where he might get stuck. Should run well, but might find it tough to compete with the rest.
7 Jigsaw Big step up in grade here, and can’t knock the jock. Expect to see him prominent early, but numbers suggest it will get tough late.
8 Dosh Looks the leader, and Dee is 24.6% to win when leading at this trip on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). Very well weighted, and not disgraced in any way last start. If she turns ahead having done little work, she might be too hard to catch.

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