Caulfield – 09/02/2019

Caulfield Race 8

Not often we see a data quality higher than 3, but this year’s CF Orr looks to be a sensational field. Always an interesting journey the 1400m, where the sprinters take on the milers in a mix across Australian form. The leaders don’t appear to be non-contenders, and the better chances look to have consistent speed with no mass of acceleration. The data suggests the value runners in the race are the outsiders with the strongest turn of foot. Question is, will the track and race play out to suit the backmarkers or the steady pacers? Data writing off some of the biggest names in racing, which never sits comfortably. That’s why they give you odds.

1 Brave Smash Drawn to settle further back and come flying home. In this field he might lose touch, but he has made it home from harder.
2 Redkirk Warrior Has to be respected but data suggests he runs an even pace without making an impact.
4 Kementari Top stable in the race and should settle mid field. Plenty of straight to fly home as he does. Looking forward to seeing his acceleration.
5 Material Man Should push for the lead early and be poised to strike. Data suggests that’s the closest he will get.
6 D’Argento Should settle off the speed and run a nice even pace to the line. Will be in the finish.
7 Land Of Plenty Top rider in the race, and should trail Kemenari into the race. Can’t ignore his spring form, goes well 2nd up but prepared only until 2 weeks ago. Still, like him.
8 Best Of Days Awkward gate to want to fall out the back, but will flash home if he has room to wind up early. Turn of foot may be too weak.
9 Moss ‘n’ Dale Should get some TV time early but won’t enjoy the serious parts of the race.
10 So Si Bon Top turn of foot in the race and won’t be that far form the action as they turn, but has burnt us too many times.
11 Manuel Should jump well and accelerate to the line. Classic McEvoy / Currie. Value runner of the race.
12 Mask Of Time No data suggests this horse will be in the race.
13 Holbien Will be in it for the race to 2 furlongs. Then won’t want a bar of it.
14 Fifty Stars Should settle off the speed and increase speed to the line. Good value.
15 Shillelagh Love this horse but doesn’t look like her race. Will get too far back in too classier field.
16 Whispering Brook Best gate speed and will give the boys something to run down. If they walk early she will be hard to beat, otherwise she will struggle to make the trip.

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