Jarrod Todd heads to Darwin on Saturday 1st of July with an excellent book of 6 rides.
He currently has a win strike rate of 24% for his last 25 rides and an impressive 22%-win strike rate for his last 100 rides.
Jarrod has a promising opportunity to secure a victory in Races 1, 5, 7, and 8 as per our statfreaks ratings, which indicate strong performance potential for his rides. These races present his most favorable chances of riding a winner.
Standouts:
Race 1, N2 LOVEPLANET: This campaign marks the fourth start after a 14-day break. Loveplanet has a nice profile at this distance back in 2022 when it was ridden by James Mcdonald and Damian Thorton. The horse tends to thrive when starting from a more advantageous barrier position and competing in a BM70 race, making it a suitable choice for this runner. If this runner can establish an early position among the frontrunners while conserving energy, it stands a very strong chance of success. Historically, when Loveplanet settles in an “On-Pace” position, it has achieved an impressive Win Strike rate of 43% and finished in the Top 3 in 71% of its races.
Race 5, N4 RISING SPHERE: 2nd-up off a 28-day break. Teaming up with the G Clark stable, Jarrod has achieved an impressive Win Strike rate of 20% in their previous 15 rides, which increases to 33% when they ride favorites. This particular runner has a preference for the inside barrier and the “Lead” position, with a noteworthy win strike rate of 44% when leading and 43% when starting from barriers 1 to 3. Jarrod’s task will be to ensure a smooth start for this horse, allowing it to take the lead comfortably. In the worst-case scenario, it’s important to avoid expending excessive energy while contending with the other formidable contender, “Ideas Man,” who may attempt to make a move from the inside. Based on our analysis, we consider this runner to be the top choice, with a potential outcome of at least a Top 3 finish.
Race 7, N3 AMERICAN JAZZ: 5th-up off a 56-day break. It’s another promising collaboration with the G Clark stable for this ride. Historical speed ratings of this runner suggest that it ranks among the top three contenders for this race. However, there are concerns about its current short price in the market, currently below $2, which is difficult to assess since this horse may not perform well when starting from barrier 8. On a positive note, it possesses a superior closing speed compared to other competitors in the field, as demonstrated by its previous two runs where it settled in the middle positions. Overall, it is anticipated to secure a Top 3 finish.
Race 8, N9 WOLFBURN: 6th-up, off a 14-day break. This particular runner possesses remarkable gate speed and is capable of securing its preferred lead or on-pace positions. Starting from barrier 6, it will face competition from Siakam and Masterati, who also tend to settle near the front. As a result, this race is expected to exhibit an early pace. The crucial factors for this horse’s success lie in its early settling position and the conservation of energy. With its impressive speed and class ratings, it has the potential to win the race or secure a position in the top 3, especially if ridden intelligently. However, there is some uncertainty regarding the current odds, which are approximately $2, as our pricing assessment values it closer to $3.70.
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