Big day of racing for the finals at Flemington, and need to get the day off to a good start. Quality race for the mares, and reasonable field quality for the compact field. Favourite Strike Rate at this track and trip this year is 33%, so not expecting many big surprises. Really like the look of Megamea with the ideal draw and form leading into this race. She has the top turn of foot in the race, and the data suggests she gets to the top of the straight comfortably. The other obvious hope is Il Affare, who’s numbers from New Zealand were very strong. Highly ranked rider and trainer, but the knock is that she will get back and might need the run. Some strong finishing numbers for Zousonic, and Miss Gobcain looks over the odds. Sticking with Megamea with the likely softer pace, being too strong for Il Affare.
Top 4
- Megamea
- Il Affare
- Zousonic
- Miss Gobcain
Good Luck
Westy
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POSITION IN RUN MAP
RUNNER COMMENTRY
| NO | NAME | COMMENT |
| 1 | Mahashakti | The KPIs for this horse are not that bad, but when looking at the previous runs it is hard to mount a case. Should be in a winning position at the turn, and has an OK turn of foot. |
| 2 | Selburose | Looks the obvious leader, and going well this prep. Just hard to see her hanging on late in the race, and the data suggests she will be caught well before the line. But have to trust the stable to have picked a suitable race. |
| 3 | Zousonic | Possibly suited by the draw to shuffle back and not get pinned. Very strong turn of foot in this race, and looks like being a peak run at a track she loves. Surely in the finish. |
| 4 | Il Affare | Bit of an unknown in the race, one the one start here and a big lay off. She will get back, but have to trust the stable and rider who rate very highly in this race. Can fly home, just needs the race to be run to suit to have a late chance. |
| 5 | Galgani | McDougall rates top in this race, but hard to know what to make of the horse’s last two starts. Has performed well at Flemington and is known to get off to a good start. Would need a big effort off the back of past runs. |
| 6 | Miss Gobcain | Solid performer who rarely puts in a bad run. KPIs for this mare are consistently above average across the board that might suggest she jumps well, transits well and puts in a good effort to the line. Class jump, but still should be there abouts. |
| 7 | Megamea | Drawn perfectly to sit behind the leaders, and the KPIs suggest she can run an even time to the 400m. From there, she has the top turn of foot in the race, and looks very hard to hold out. Expecting a big run. |
| 8 | Spirit Of Gold | Should get out OK and be on pace. Stable rates OK, and should be able to hold a decent position in transit. Data suggests she finds the last 400m a bit tough. |
| 9 | Tripoli | Rough draw to fall back from, and can’t see how she can recover from there. Would be a hell of a ride. |