What an edition of the Lightning Stakes, and to me it seems there has been a lot more analysis and hype than usual. What a field though, quality from across all grades converging into one race down the straight. Lots of critique of trials and jump outs, and a few interesting jockey changes might buck the trend of what we have seen recently with these class horses. All we can look at is the data, and any other bias should take this information into account. An interesting factor here is 1000m, and at least three horses that will look to lead. From a map point of view, the data suggests the stronger finishers will come from the middle of the field, without needing as long to wind up. Really like the look of Nature Strip with Motor Kah on board, and like many others, I think she will be able to settle him in the run for a driving finish through the middle of the track. Data wise, he just looks so strong from just off the pace, and 1000m looks OK for him first up. Bivouac obviously a big chance, just not sure about coming from further back over the shorter trip. Cummings eluded to him getting improvement out of the run, and this is certainly not a target for him. The real unknown in this race is the West Aussie Elite Street. Data wise looks to sit mid field off the pace and have a very strong burst of speed half way through the race and give a shout late. At the odds he can run a very strong race. Still, sticking with Nature Strip and Motor Kah, with Elite Street to ruffle some feathers.

Good Luck


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Statfreaks Flemington Race 8 Speed Map 13th February 2021


1 Nature Strip Jamie Kah could be what this guy needs, and we will know once he jumps if he is in the race. The data says that he will pump out the best race from an ideal draw, but if he can’t settle and gets caught up with Pippie, it could be all over for him. Strong data on his previous 1000m runs, but we all know how he goes first up. Just think we are getting a good price on him to start the race better here.
2 Bivouac Mind blowing last start, but not 100% this is his target. The data says he can pump out as good a race as Nature Strip but will be coming from further back over 1000m.
3 Elite Street Very interesting runner over from WA first item down the straight. Watching his previous wins at the same grade was incredible, and looks to have drawn well to launch behind the leaders. Has the turn of foot, and Zahra rides well for this stable. Value runner of the race.
4 Halvorsen Want to see him run well, but looks to be well out of his comfort zone early, and the draw doesn’t help.
5 Pippie Looks the obvious leader, and you would think the tactic is to bolt from start to finish, without stacking them up. Doesn’t look as strong in the middle section in this race, which leans towards a tougher task to hold out the mid fielders.
6 Fabergino Racing very well but different dance here. Has work to come from wider and get a nice position, and the data suggests that it will get a bit tough late for her. Although we did say that last start, and she was fantastic.
7 September Run Really love this filly, but not sure about  this class. She just looks to be strung out early, and that might knock her around a bit. Can finish the race well no doubt, but not sure if she can trouble the scorers first up here.
8 Swats That Might get caught out in no mans land early, and might lose ground trying to get a position. Doesn’t have the strongest turn of foot here, and needs a race that she can grind out from a long way from home. Well weighted, but may struggle to keep in touch in the middle parts of the race.

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