Pakenham Race 7 and Ascot Race 8- 08/12/2018

Pakenham Race 7

Always a tough meeting at Pakenham on a Saturday. Locals take on the established horses around a particular track. Do as we do, and stick to the data. Runaway, Our Big Mike and Pilote D’Essai should joust for the lead which suggests a strung out race, and may damage their chances. The data predicts Dal Harraild and Lord Fandango may settle with the leaders and grind out an even pace to the line, with the danger being Tally and Noumea that may settle off the pace and have a strong turn of foot when they turn for home. Hard to ignore Pilot D’Essai and Kiwia on a similar soft track last start. See what the track is doing, but likely to be advantaged being closer to the lead. Open race, but leaning towards the leaders that can sustain the tempo. If Sandown taught us anything 2 weeks ago, is that odds mean little at a meeting like this. Stick with the data, and just find one or two for pay day.

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Ascot Race 8

Kingstown Town Classic in Perth, another test of the locals against the better knowns. Trap for Fools and Great Shot should take up an easy lead, and we know what Trap for Fools can produce. Material Man, Perfect Jewel and Iconoclasm should tuck in behind, and worth noting that Material Man has the strongest turn of foot in the race, and Lucy is the 6th rated hoop in the race. With high stakes races, there is every chance that stable mates will hunt in packs. Perfect Jewel may fight for the lead and heat things up, setting it up for Sir William on the flyweight Arcadia Queen. We wouldn’t dare query Sir William, but in Group 1 company falling out the back makes it hard no matter what you are on. Looking to the on pacers to not give the rest a chance. Trap for Fools and Material Man against the swoopers.

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