Big fields across the day at HQ, and a quality distance race to start the card gives us a chance to better use the data. No real speed in the race, and you would think that every horse should get their chance. Focusing in on two runners in particular here in Pesto and Mandela Effect. Pesto had a huge run last start, and should be fitter and suited to the track with a bit of give in it. Decent rider, decent prep and drawn to get an easy transit. The danger is Mandela Effect, that is still finding a way to get out from that last start at Caulfield. Egan rates top in this race, and posts a 39% place strike rate when mid field at distance on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). Should be fit and ready to put in a gut buster at a nice price. Other runners with strong ratings are Maserartie Bay up front and Warning given what he has been able to produce at this track before. Sticking with Pesto despite the rise in grade, feeling Mandela Effect could be the knock out.

Top 4

  • Pesto
  • Mandela Effect
  • Maserartie Bay
  • Warning

Good Luck


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Flemington Race 1 Speed Map 4th of June, 2022 Statfreaks


1 Warning Class runner of the race, and always puts in an effort at HQ. Might get a bit far back, but decent turn of foot to get into the race late. Just a bit cautious of the weights. Should be fitter, should find the podium.
2 Mandela Effect Had big wraps on this guy last start at a price, and just had no where to go. Finished off very well, and will just need luck in running to have a real crack at them here. Egan rates top in this race, and posts a 39% place strike rate when mid field at distance on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). Stretch in trip shouldn’t matter, value runner of the race.
4 Maserartie Bay Top rated stable for this race and well rated rider in Motor Kah. Should be up on the speed with every chance, but hasn’t seemed to run as well at HQ. Should run well, but will be a task to hold out the swoopers.
5 One More Try Awkward draw and probably is pinned back on the fence. Has showed some ability to finish races well, but this grade looks a bit too tough.
6 Double You Tee Always rated this guy, but hasn’t really met the grade this prep. Will get back in the run, but gets the weight relief. Would need some sort of pace up front and a super effort late to get it done here you would think.
7 Attention Run Puts in honest efforts at the grade, and might be prominent early. First time at Flemington in a deeper field, later stages look tough for her. Still, expect to see an honest run.
8 Queen Takes King Racing well this prep without a W, but maps to get a bit further back here. Weight helps, but the numbers suggest the benchmark of the race will be tough for her to sustain. Still, on the back up for a reason. Should be there abouts.
9 Pesto Misjudged him last start, and boy did he rocket home. Should only be suited to the wide expanses of Flemington. Will take up the running at the rear, and can see him catching the leaders. Doesn’t mind it wet, very good chance.
10 Constantinople Looks the leader from the draw, and can grind out a time. Deep into his prep now, and not a great record at Flemington.
11 Miss Five Hundred She has put in some decent runs at odds, but a big jump in grade here on the back up. Would need a lot to go right.

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