Seems to be a bit of a dart board day at HQ, and a quality distance race might be our only real chance to get value out of the data we have. Narrowing the focus on three runners here in Schabau, South Pacific and One More Try. All appear to get a mid field run off a soft pace, and the way the race looks, every horse will have their chance from the top of the straight. The Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT) shows that Prebble has a 9.6% market edge in these races when coming from the rear. Schabau has the top turn of foot, and a pilot that lands results in races like these, so no reason not to stick with him. South Pacific has been up for a while now, and has the top Jockey in motor Kah on board. Just not sure if he has another gut busting Flemington straight in him, but surely he is in the finish. The other interesting runner is One More Try, who you would expect to see come flying home late at the weights. Sticking with Schabau from South Pacific and One More Try.

Good Luck


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Click here to enlarge a speed map for Flemington Race 1 Speed Map 7th of August, 2021


1 Dr Drill Class horse in this field and maps to get an OK transit up front, just needs to beat the wide draw down the straight. May get a bit tough later in the race and he’s not a sharp as the others. Still, should be there abouts.
2 The Good Fight Great win last start here and nothing to suggest he can’t do it again. Might have been a peak run, but the numbers suggest he has the turn of foot to hang on deep into this race. Just not sure he has another gin run in him.
3 Schabau Great record here second up for this guy, and Prebble has a 9.6% market edge in these races on the JAT. Looks to settle at the rear, and has the top turn of foot in the race. Loves Flemington, can’t see him being out of the finish.
4 South Pacific Been up for a while this prep, but Motor Kah sitting off an average pace will help. Data suggests he will need to make an early run to be a chance. Seems to like Flemington and you can’t see him out of the finish.
5 One More Try She posts very good numbers in this race, but will just need a bit of luck if coming from the rear of the field. Without a heap of speed in the race it might be a challenge, but she has a big run in her at the weights no doubt.
6 Chouxting The Mob Not racing terribly well at the moment, and there is not a lot of data support for him.
7 Killourney Goes OK second up, but hasn’t showed much recently. Looks to run a nice even time, but can’t see him faring in this race.
8 Tolemac Looks the leader from a good draw. Might be able to control the race up front, but the numbers suggest that he  isn’t going well enough this prep to hold them off in this race.

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