Quality distance race to start off the day at HQ, and reasonable field quality for a 3 year old race to give us some sort of confidence in the numbers. No real pace in the race, with some of the lesser chances to be up front early. Squared away three runners in particular in Sonara, General Firepower and Carlisle. Sonara looks a reliable performer in this race, and she gets the benefit of Coffey on board who is at a 39% place strike rate when off pace over this trip on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). She should land mid field, get going at the turn and grind a solid pace to the line. General Firepower is the rocket that will probably be coming home wide, and Carlisle in striking form at the minute.  Have some concerns with British Columbia from the wider barrier, as past form suggest he prefers an easy ride from an insider barrier to take up the lead or on-pace position, and will need to burn additional energy in this race to obtain a preferred position, therefore leaving him venerable late.

Sticking with Sonara at the weights from Carlisle.

Good Luck


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Flemington Speed Map 14th of May, 2022 Statfreaks


2 Carlisle Flying this prep and solid at this trip. Looks to run a decent even time, and his last start rates very well. Harder race here, but have to respect the winning form. Might be the one to catch late.
3 British Columbia Looks to get out of the gate well but bit of a problem barrier. Will have to work to get across, and the first time at HQ may throw up some surprises for him. Expect to see him run well, but would need a super effort.
4 General Firepower Well rated jockey and stable. Can absolutely fly home, but question marks on where he gets in the run from the ride draw. If there is some sort of pace in the race and he can stay in touch, he is a chance to finish well.
5 Sonora Top rated stable, and drawn ideally to land mid field. Coffey rates well also, and is 39% place strike rate when off pace over this trip on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). Can see her hitting her straps late again. Great chance.
6 Aktolgali Solid in Adelaide two starts back, but not sure about his last start. Has raced well at Flemington before, but the data suggests the depth of this race is too tough for him.
7 Flash Feeling Hard to know what to make of his last run. He has the top turn of oot in this race, and of the ratings last start he is a decent chance here. Done no favours by the draw.
8 Playing It Safe Big jump in class to this field, but the trainer does rate well here. Early speed a concern, and will need a super run to finish off well again.
10 Not A Brass Razoo Looks the leader, and haven’t seen the best of her since coming over from NZ. On past runs the data suggests she will find the later stages of the race tough.
11 Bring The Stars Another runner jumping up to the big stage, and looks to be slower out of the gate. The data suggests he can make his way to the front half of the field in the middle stages, but the final sprint will be too tough for him.

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