Concluding our analysis on just horse racing statistics for Moonee Valley races, the data suggests that it is more difficult to run down the lead horses as the race distances increases.
How we came up with the theory?
Taking a closer look at the 400-meter point statistics, we can see that the strike rate for leading horses in staying type races is 64%. Between positions two and four, there is not much of a variance in comparison to leading horses. In a staying type race the horses are running at a slower pace when running to the finish post, and are not able to catch up to the leader as fast as they would have in the middle or sprint distance race types at Moonee Valley. Running at a slower pace would require further distance to make up ground, and at Moonee Valley races the sharp bend before the straight is around the 400-meter point.
The above theory can further be supported by the figures in the middle distance range, where a similar pattern exists although not as dominant. Finally, sprint races also confirm that at Moonee Valley Races, the shorter the distance, the easier it is to make up ground and finish in the Top 3, which makes sense the faster a horse is running, the more ground it can make up in a shorter amount of distance, and time.