Really hoping the rain can hold out on what looks to be a wide open day of racing. Can’t wait for the Cox Plate, and need to build a bank in the earlier races. Strong field quality for the 1200m, and a moderate tempo predicted with speed on the inside and outside of the field. Really like the look of Dosh, who is predicted to be very strong early. She is very consistent, so if she can get the lead it is hard to see her being run down. Childs is 20.6% to win when leading at this trip on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT), which only helps her cause. The threat is Generation, who with J Mac on board posts a 50% place strike rate on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT) Another huge statistic in this race is with Tadweer ridden by Luke Nolen. Nolan is a massive 34.5% win and 69% place strike rate when leading at this trip on the JAT, and the horse is unbeaten from two starts. Big value at the odds. Another runner with interesting stats is Athelric with Where’s Ollie that can run a good race at a price. Sticking with Dosh to be a class above this field and the draw.

Good Luck


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Click here to enlarge a speed map for Moonee Valley Race 4 Speed Map Statfreaks 2021 23rd of October 2021


1 He’s Xceptional Not without a chance, but his starts are the concern. Will find it tough at this track to make any sort of ground late. Will need luck from an early run for home.
2 Scissor Step Decent turn of foot, but the race looks to stretch him out a bit early, so might find it tough to feature.
3 Daily Bugle Closing speed outstrips this race by a long way, but just a query on the early stages of the race at this class. Not sure he is suited to the Valley off his first few starts here.
4 Generation Looks to pump a nice even time through this race, and this looks to be his trip. J Mac rates top in this race and is 50% to place on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT) when mid field at this distance. Expecting to see him in the finish.
5 Athelric Data suggests this guy will finish the race well, but will get back from the inside gate. Oliver in great form though, and if he can stay off the fence he will finish the race well at a nice price. Value.
6 Sudoko Can’t knock the stable and rider. Another runner that will probably get back and need luck to finish well.
7 Tadweer Very interesting runner. Can lead from the draw, and unbeaten at his first two starts. Huge jump in class, but Nolen is a massive 34.5% win and 69% place strike rate when leading at this trip on the JAT. If he improves and gets a bit of luck, he will get every favour. The JAT stats alone make him the value runner of the race.
8 Mornington Glory Drawn well to box seat, and should be able to keep up with it early. Just not sure about the acceleration to the turn to make a difference in this race.
9 Dosh An obvious chance given how consistent she is. Childs is 20.6% to win when leading at this trip on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT).  Just has to beat the draw and any challenge up front, and she will be too hard to catch.

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