Smallish field over the mile at Pakenham, and whilst a few will look to lead there may not be a heap of speed in the race. Three runners stand out in the statistics, with one of them will be prominent and the other two at the rear. Interesting numbers for Black Sail, who with Coffey is 16.3% to win and 40.8% to place when leading over a mile on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). If there is no pressure, and Coffey can sit and wait, Black Sail has the turn of foot at the weights to cause some problems at a nice price. The other chances in Hi Stranger and Frankie Pinot both appear to take up the running at the rear and make their run late. The numbers suggest that Black Sail will take off at the top of the straight, and Frankie Pinot and Hi Stranger will give chase. Black Sail the value to hold on with the strong riding of Harry Coffey, from a fast finishing Hi Stranger. Good Luck
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