Smallish field over the mile at Pakenham, and whilst a few will look to lead there may not be a heap of speed in the race. Three runners stand out in the statistics, with one of them will be prominent and the other two at the rear. Interesting numbers for Black Sail, who with Coffey is 16.3% to win and 40.8% to place when leading over a mile on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). If there is no pressure, and Coffey can sit and wait, Black Sail has the turn of foot at the weights to cause some problems at a nice price. The other chances in Hi Stranger and Frankie Pinot both appear to take up the running at the rear and make their run late. The numbers suggest that Black Sail will take off at the top of the straight, and Frankie Pinot and Hi Stranger will give chase. Black Sail the value to hold on with the strong riding of Harry Coffey, from a fast finishing Hi Stranger. Good Luck

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Click here to enlarge a speed map for Pakenham Race 5 Speed Map Statfreaks 2021 4th of December


1 Hi Stranger The class of this race, and this is his trip. Top turn of foot in the race, and the smaller field is ideal to be finishing the race well from mid field. Can’t see him out of the finish.
2 Don’t Doubt Dory Top stable in the race, and hard to know what to make of his last run on the heavy. Will probably appreciate the drop in grade, just not sure if the Cranbourne Cup was his target. Can’t rule him out but the stats aren’t as strong for him this race.
3 Beefeater Not a great first up record, but the stable does rate well in these races. Good enough turn of foot, but might get strung out a bit early.
4 Holbien Might challenge for the lead from the draw, and has always been a reliable performer. Just not sure about him this prep, and this race looks a bit tough to hold them out.
5 Black Sail Looks to land closer to the speed, and Coffey is 16.3% to win and 40.8% to place when leading over a mile on the Jockey Analysis Tool. Looks to run an even time, and at the weights should be a big chance 4th up. Value runner of the race.
6 Al Passem Looks the obvious leader, and might get to control most of the race in a smaller field. Hasn’t raced the best this prep, and would need a lot of improvement from the country cups.
7 Frankie Pinot Won’t want a bar of it early, but have all seen how he flies home late. Expect to see him tuck from the draw, and come into the race when it matters. Surely in the finish.

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