A quick analysis of across previous Melbourne cup winners between 2012 and 2018 presents some interesting information for consideration.

1. None of the winning horses was in the lead, or on-pace at the 800-meter point.
2. All of the winning rides were in the mid-range pack groups at the 800.
3. At the 400 meter point, they had worked there way up to be just behind the leaders, apart from Cross Counter who was still mid-pack with 400 to go.

What can we take away from the past few years?

• The winners have not come from the lead, future winners are likely to be positioned in the mid-back area.

How can I use this information?

• If you have access to in-play betting, this data can be beneficial
• This information may also assist with helping you exclude or include horses for the win during form analysis.

Watching each reply of past Melbourne cup races between 2012 and 2018 and overlaying these statistics identified that none of the lead horses at the 800-meter point would place or win.

Win Analysis

• Three of the winners settled in Midfield-forward position at the 800-meter point.
• Two were in the midfield position, and two were in the midfield-back areas.

Place Analysis

1. Five of the top three finishing horses were each in the Midfield-Forward and Midfield Position,
2. Three were in the mid-back positions.
3. Most interestingly, seven places that were on pace (stalking the leaders).

What can we learn from this analysis?

The highest percentage so far for placing has come from horses in the On-Pace position. Therefore if your looking for horses that will finish in the top 3 places in future Melbourne cup races, identifying horses that will be on-pace with cover is a great start. Trying to find the winner is a little different, historical data suggest that runners positioned in the midfield area have a higher probability of winning.

At first glance, the analysis shows that the Top 3 weighted horses have not won, or placed between 2012 and 2018.

1. There have been five horses that have carried 56.5 kg. One of them has won.
2. All of the past winners carried 56.5 or less.

What can we take away from this analysis?

Anything over 57.5 kg has not won or placed, and the winning rides carried 56.5 kg or less. Many of the runners carry between 54 and 54.5 kg, yet none of them has won a race.

How can I use this information?

If you into lay betting (betting the horse won’t win), then taking a look at horses carried 54.4/54.5 kg is a great place to start. Out of 40 runners carrying this weight, none have won a Melbourne cup race between 2012 and 2018.

Between 2012 and 2018 Melbourne cup races, barrier five has come out on top with two wins and two placings.

• Barriers 6,7,8,9 have not had a place or win.
• Barrier 2 has had three places out of 7 Melbourne cups.

In the 3200-meter Melbourne Cup race, the barrier starting position has the least impact. From our earlier settling position analysis, the winning rides have come from the mid-pack area, therefore as long as runners can work there way into the mid-pack area, they should be factored in for a winning chance.