Always enjoy a small field distance race to kick off proceedings on a big day. Small but quality field with some younger horses having a crack with the bigger boys for the first time. The SFR (Stat Freaks Rating) stands out three runners in Playoffs, Five Kingdom and Deepstrike, and there appears to be no real speed in the race with the rail in a true position. You would think there is an advantage on the fence up front, so looking towards Playoffs and Five Kingdom. Looking at some key KPIs and turn of foot information, Five Kingdom leads, with Playoffs midfield and Deepstrike coming from the rear. Richards on Five Kingdom is 24% to win and 44% to place when leading at this trip on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). On recent runs, Playoffs makes an early dash for home, and can catch Five Kingdom and the data suggests he can hold out Deepstrike. Sticking with Playoffs from Five Kingdom.

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Caulfield Race 2 April 9th 2022


1 Five Kingdom Looks the leader, and with the rail in the true there might be an early advantage on the rails. Richards is 24% to win and 44% to place when leading at this trip on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). Decent turn of foot, and if there is no pressure on, he is a big chance. Value runner of the race.
2 Playoffs Had big wraps on this guy for his last few starts and has always put in an honest effort. Should settle midfield, and the stable rates top for this race. Expect to see him make an early run for home and finish the race very well. This is his trip, big chance.
3 Barry The Baptist One of the lesser chances that should at least make a race of it. Always admire the older guys, and you rarely see him run badly. Data suggests he goes forward and will find it hard when the race gets serious.
4 Commander Harry Meech rates top in this race, and the horse does look to grind out an even time. Obviously has quality on his Spring last year, but would need a big effort to knock out the older horses
5 Savaheat No early speed, and numbers suggest he can finish the race well. Just on recent times he will be blowing hard well before then.
6 Agnelli Quality rider in Prebble on a low weighted Waller runner. Dangerous. Should get an on pace run, but on previous runs might not have the acceleration to go deep into this race. Expect to see him run well, but will need some luck if pinned on the fence.
7 Deepstrike The swooper of the field, and top turn of foot to suit. Bit of a jump in grade here, but at the weights he is a very good chance to fly home and break hearts. Just needs to stay in touch in the early stages.
8 Pale King McNeil rates well in this race, but interesting that he goes to this runner in the stable ahead of the stablemate stronger in the market. His runs this prep on Heavy tracks make it hard to see where he is at. Numbers suggest this race might finish a bit quick for him.

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